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Snapshot

Item	Value
Valuation View	Fairly valued (−10.5% to fair value)
Current Price	US$1,088.00 (7 Oct 2026 close; 6.2x forward P/E)
12-month Fair Value	US$974 (40% DCF / 30% residual income / 30% peers)
Bear–bull Range	US$635 (−41.6%) to US$1,620 (+48.9%)
Dividend Yield	0.06% (US$0.15 a quarter)

Key Takeaways

• Fairly valued: our fair value is US$974 vs US$1,088.00 (−10.5%), with a range of US$635–US$1,620; the shares trade on 6.2x forward earnings because the market is treating FY2027 as close to a cyclical peak (stockanalysis).
• A record quarter, and a bigger one guided: FQ4 FY2026 revenue was US$54.23bn (+379.3% year on year) at an 87.0% non-GAAP gross margin, and FQ1 FY2027 is guided to US$61.5bn ± US$1.5bn (FQ4 FY2026 release).
• The price assumes the boom lasts: our base-case cash flows, with revenue falling to US$200bn in FY2029, equal today’s price only at an 8.4% discount rate vs our 14.5% WACC; the P/E applied to mid-cycle earnings is the biggest lever (US$808–US$1,089).

The Verdict

Fairly valued — fair value US$974 (range US$635–US$1,620), −10.5% vs US$1,088.00 (7 Oct 2026 close).

What is working: Micron is in the strongest memory upcycle in its history. FY2026 (year to 3 Sep 2026) revenue rose to US$133.19bn from US$37.38bn and GAAP net income to US$84.97bn, with GAAP diluted EPS of US$74.33 (FQ4 FY2026 release, stockanalysis). On the FQ4 call management said DRAM prices rose by a high-teens percentage quarter on quarter and NAND prices by about 30%, that 26 multi-year take-or-pay customer agreements cover more than 35% of revenue through 2030, and that it holds about US$150bn of remaining performance obligations (call transcript, MarketBeat call summary). Net cash was US$68.3bn at 3 Sep 2026.

What the price already assumes: the shares are up 281.2% this year (from US$285.41 at 31 Dec 2025) and 13.3% below the 52-week high of US$1,255.00 (week of 22 Jun 2026; IBKR). At US$1,088.00 they trade on 6.2x FY2027 consensus EPS of US$176.15 (stockanalysis consensus). Our base case uses consensus FY2027 revenue of US$275.0bn, then lets revenue fall 9% in FY2028 and 20% in FY2029 as new industry capacity arrives, with the EBITDA margin settling at 55%. Those cash flows equal today’s price only at an 8.4% discount rate, against our 14.5% WACC — so the price already assumes earnings stay well above our mid-cycle path.

The single factor that decides it: whether DRAM and NAND prices hold once the industry’s 2027–28 capacity additions arrive. Our base case has EPS falling from about US$171 in FY2027 to about US$75 in FY2029–31; if the take-or-pay agreements keep it at roughly US$145–160 (bull case), fair value is US$1,620; a repeat of past memory downturns — the shares fell about 70% in 2014–16, 57% in 2018–19 and about 50% in 2022–23 (Trefis) — points to the bear case (US$635).

Recent Developments (Last 12 Months)

Date	Event	Why it matters
19 Oct 2025	Reuters report: Micron to exit server-chip sales to China data centres; China was about US$3.4bn, ~12% of FY2025 revenue (The Standard)	Smaller China exposure
17 Dec 2025	FQ1 FY2026: revenue US$13.64bn, non-GAAP EPS US$4.78; dividend US$0.115 (8-K)	Upcycle begins
13 Jan 2026	Director Teyin Liu buys 23,200 shares at US$337.14 (about US$7.8m) — the only open-market insider purchase in 12 months (Form 4 via secform4)	Insider buying
17 Jan 2026	Letter of intent to buy PSMC’s Tongluo fab site in Taiwan; completed 15 Mar 2026 (StockTitan)	Faster capacity (M&A)
9 Mar 2026	Added to the S&P 100, effective 23 Mar 2026 (stockti)	Index flows
16 Mar 2026	HBM4 for NVIDIA Vera Rubin in high-volume production (StockTitan)	HBM customer win
18 Mar 2026	FQ2 FY2026: revenue US$23.86bn; quarterly dividend raised 30% to US$0.15 (8-K)	Dividend increase
22 Jun 2026	Multi-year memory supply agreement with Anthropic plus a Micron investment in its Series H (amount not disclosed) (FourWeekMBA)	AI customer
24 Jun 2026	FQ3 FY2026: revenue US$41.46bn; 2026 HBM sold out (ValueTheMarkets, AI Weekly)	Beat and raise
9 Jul 2026	Up to US$3bn US supply-chain investment incl. US$500m financing for GlobalWafers’ Texas wafer plant; US investment plan raised to more than US$250bn through 2035 (Tom’s Hardware)	Capex and supply security
24 Jul & 21 Aug 2026	CEO Sanjay Mehrotra sells 40,000 shares on each date (about US$76.1m in total) (Form 4 via secform4)	Insider selling
26 Aug 2026	Manish Bhatia named President & COO, Scott DeBoer President & Chief Technology and Products Officer; Sumit Sadana becomes Senior Advisor (company release via Finviz)	Management change
30 Sep 2026	FQ4 FY2026: revenue US$54.23bn, non-GAAP EPS US$33.42; FQ1 FY2027 guide US$61.5bn ± US$1.5bn; dividend US$0.15 declared (8-K)	Record quarter
30 Sep–1 Oct 2026	Capex guided to about US$25bn in 1H FY2027, higher in 2H; shares fell after hours (Stocktwits)	Main bear trigger
1–7 Oct 2026	Broker targets raised: DA Davidson to US$3,000 (7 Oct), Rosenblatt to US$1,900 and Mizuho to US$1,400 (1 Oct) (MarketBeat)	Sentiment
14 Oct 2026 (next)	Dividend record date (US$0.15), payable 29 Oct 2026 (8-K); FQ1 FY2027 results date not yet announced	Next scheduled events

Key Numbers

Metric	Value	Basis
Forward P/E	6.2x	US$1,088.00 ÷ FY2027 consensus EPS US$176.15 (stockanalysis)
P/B	8.9x	stockanalysis, 7 Oct 2026
Revenue growth	+379.3% / +256.3%	FQ4 FY2026 y/y / FY2026 y/y
Cost of equity / WACC	14.6% / 14.5%	US 10-year 5.31% + adjusted β 1.85 × 5%
Non-GAAP gross margin	87.0%	FQ4 FY2026 (FY2025 FQ4 GAAP: 44.7%)
From 52-week high	−13.3%	52-week range US$179.61–US$1,255.00 (IBKR)

1. Business & Moat

Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MU; IBKR contract 9939 “MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC”) designs and manufactures DRAM — including high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI accelerators — and NAND flash. It is one of three large DRAM makers. Its fiscal year ends around the start of September; FY2026 ended on 3 Sep 2026 and was reported on 30 Sep 2026. In FQ4 DRAM was US$39.8bn (73% of revenue) and NAND US$14.1bn (26%); HBM revenue is not disclosed (call transcript, MarketBeat).

Business unit	FQ4 FY26 (US$m)	Share	FY26 (US$m)	FY25 (US$m)	FY growth
Core Data Center (CDBU)	18,002	33%	37,592	7,229	+420.0%
Cloud Memory (CMBU)	16,283	30%	43,085	13,524	+218.6%
Mobile & Client (MCBU)	13,114	24%	36,601	11,859	+208.6%
Automotive & Embedded (AEBU)	6,824	13%	15,886	4,753	+234.2%
Total	54,229	100%	133,188	37,378	+256.3%

Sources: FQ4 from the 8-K release; full-year business-unit figures from stockanalysis (they sum to reported revenue; FY totals include about US$24m “other”). Customers: the top ten customers were about half of revenue in each of the last three fiscal years (FY2025 10-K). Customer deposits under the strategic agreements (non-current customer contract liabilities) were US$12.9bn on the balance sheet at 3 Sep 2026. Geography: the FY2025 10-K says about 80% of revenue shipped to locations outside the US; a FY2026 regional split is not yet available (10-K not filed). Guidance: FQ1 FY2027 revenue US$61.5bn ± US$1.5bn, GAAP gross margin about 85.95% (non-GAAP about 86.25%), non-GAAP EPS US$38.15 ± US$1.00 on about 1.15bn diluted shares; management called FQ1 “the floor for gross margins in fiscal 2027” (8-K, call).

Porter’s Five Forces

Force	Pressure	Evidence
Rivalry	High (but disciplined now)	Three-way DRAM oligopoly; the three large makers are spending more than US$75bn a year on capex in this upcycle (Trefis)
Buyer power	High	Top ten customers ≈ half of revenue; hyperscalers and NVIDIA negotiate multi-year volumes and prices
Supplier power	Medium	Equipment and wafer suppliers; Micron financed GlobalWafers’ Texas plant (US$500m) to secure wafers
Threat of substitutes	Low	No substitute for DRAM/HBM in AI servers; “memory-saving” techniques are a demand risk, not a product substitute
Threat of new entrants	Low	New fabs cost billions — Micron’s Hiroshima HBM expansion alone is ¥1.5tn (about US$9.3bn) (The Next Web)

Moat verdict: narrow — scale, process technology and HBM qualification in a three-player market, but little pricing power once supply catches up.

2. Leadership & Capital Allocation

Item	Detail
Chairman, President & CEO	Sanjay Mehrotra (CEO since May 2017; Chairman since Jan 2025) (FY2025 10-K)
President & COO	Manish Bhatia (from 26 Aug 2026)
President & Chief Technology and Products Officer	Scott DeBoer (new role, 26 Aug 2026)
EVP & CFO	Mark J. Murphy
Control	No controlling holder; BlackRock 9.28%, Vanguard 7.1%, State Street 4.43%; insiders about 0.2% (Simply Wall St)
CEO pay	NOT FOUND in the primary proxy (latest DEF 14A, Nov 2025, not parsed)
Returns vs hurdle	ROE 88.3% and ROIC 93.4% (trailing, stockanalysis) vs our 14.6% cost of equity — peak-cycle returns
Dividends	US$0.15 a quarter after a 30% rise in Mar 2026; US$610m paid in FY2026; yield 0.06%
Buybacks	US$650m repurchased in FY2026 plus US$1,127m withheld for employee tax; US$2.2bn authorisation left; management plans to step up returns, mainly buybacks, from 9 Dec 2026 (call)
Debt	Total debt cut from US$15.35bn (FY2025) to US$5.18bn; net cash US$68.3bn
Dilution	Diluted weighted-average shares 1,141m in FY2021 vs 1,143m in FY2026 (FQ4: 1,147m) — flat over five years
M&A / investments	PSMC Tongluo fab site (completed 15 Mar 2026); US$500m GlobalWafers financing; investment in Anthropic’s Series H; US$250m Micron Ventures AI fund (13 Aug 2026)

Insider check: net selling — in the last 90 days CEO Sanjay Mehrotra sold 80,000 shares (24 Jul and 21 Aug 2026, about US$76.1m), then-EVP Sumit Sadana 15,000 (18 Aug, about US$14.0m) and CAO Scott Allen 879 (23 Jul, about US$0.9m); the only open-market purchase in 12 months was director Teyin Liu’s 23,200 shares at US$337.14 on 13 Jan 2026 (SEC Form 4 filings via secform4). Whether the CEO’s fixed 40,000-share monthly sales are under a 10b5-1 plan is not verified; Oct–Dec 2025 filings were not reachable.

3. Financial Health

US$m	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	FQ4 FY26
Revenue	27,705	30,758	15,540	25,111	37,378	133,188	54,229
Gross margin (GAAP)	37.6%	45.2%	2.7%	22.4%	39.8%	80.7%	86.8%
Operating income	6,283	9,709	−3,574	1,305	9,809	99,340	≈43,750
Net income	5,861	8,687	−5,833	778	8,539	84,969	37,701
Diluted EPS (US$)	5.14	7.75	−5.34	0.70	7.59	74.33	32.87
Operating cash flow	12,468	15,181	1,559	8,507	17,525	89,675	≈43,970
Capex (gross)	10,030	12,067	7,676	8,386	15,857	30,712	11,110
Free cash flow	2,438	3,114	−6,117	121	1,668	58,963	≈32,860
Cash & investments*	10,464	11,200	10,656	9,342	12,130	73,453
Total debt	6,776	7,576	13,999	14,078	15,352	5,179
Equity	43,933	49,907	44,120	45,131	54,165	138,378

FY2021 from the FY2021 release (FCF = OCF − capex); FY2022–26 from stockanalysis (cash flow, balance sheet), FY2026 cross-checked to the FQ4 release. FQ4 FCF = operating cash flow − gross capex; on Micron’s own “adjusted free cash flow” basis (net of capex proceeds) FQ4 was US$33.20bn and FY2026 US$62.31bn. *Cash & investments: FY2021 and FY2026 are Micron’s reported totals including restricted cash; FY2022–25 are stockanalysis cash, short-term and long-term investments.

• Cash backs the profit: FY2026 operating cash flow of US$89.7bn was 1.06x net income of US$85.0bn.
• Deposits flatter cash flow: non-current customer contract liabilities rose by about US$12.3bn in FQ4, to US$12.9bn at year-end (US$12.75bn of deposit proceeds in FY2026); they are tied to future deliveries, not extra profit.
• Capex is about to jump: about US$25bn in 1H FY2027 and more in 2H, vs US$30.7bn gross in all of FY2026 — free cash flow will lag earnings in FY2027.
• Small adjustments: FY2026 GAAP EPS US$74.33 vs non-GAAP US$75.52; share-based pay US$1.33bn (1.0% of revenue).

4. Risks

Macro & Regulatory

• Serious: China — the 2023 CAC ban on purchases by critical-infrastructure operators still limits sales, and Micron is reported to be leaving China data-centre server chips (about 12% of FY2025 revenue in China) (10-K, The Standard).
• Watch: US export controls and tariffs on semiconductors and equipment; no new action against Micron found in 2026.
• Watch: high rates — the US 10-year yield is 5.31% (FRED), which raises the discount rate on long-dated fab investments.

Operational & Competitive

• Critical: the memory cycle — industry capex and wafer-fab equipment spending (about US$145bn in 2026 and US$156bn in 2027, per Trefis) point to oversupply risk in 2027–28; every past upcycle ended with a 50–70% share-price fall.
• Serious: HBM position — Micron is reported to be number three in HBM with the smallest share of NVIDIA’s HBM4 allocation (AI Weekly).
• Serious: customer concentration — the top ten customers are about half of revenue.
• Watch: execution on new capacity — Idaho fab 1 wafer output is due mid-2027, fab 2 late 2028, and New York around 2030.

Financial & Governance

• Watch: capex step-up — FY2027 capex likely above US$50bn (US$25bn in 1H, higher in 2H) commits cash before demand is proven.
• Watch: steady insider selling by the CEO and other executives through 2026; one director purchase.
• Watch: take-or-pay contracts reduce, but do not remove, pricing risk; their price terms are not disclosed.

5. Catalysts

When	Measurable test	Odds
14 Oct 2026	Dividend record date (US$0.15)	Scheduled
Oct 2026	FY2026 10-K filed: segment, geography and customer detail	High
From 9 Dec 2026	Larger buyback authorisation and faster returns, as flagged on the call	65%
FQ1 FY2027 results (date not announced; last year 17 Dec)	Revenue ≥ US$61.5bn and non-GAAP gross margin ≥ 86.0%	60–65%
CY2027	HBM bit supply for 2027 mostly contracted at higher prices — confirmation in pricing commentary	Medium
Mid-2027	Idaho fab 1 first wafer output	Medium

Bull case vs consensus: consensus has FY2027 revenue of US$275.0bn (+106.5%) and EPS of US$176.15 from 39 analysts; 45 of 49 analysts rate the shares Buy or Strong Buy with a mean target of US$1,536 (stockanalysis). Our base case accepts FY2027 consensus but not its persistence; the bull case (fair value US$1,620) needs margins above 60% through FY2031.

6. Valuation Suite

6a. Cost of Capital

Input	Value	Source / note
Risk-free (US 10-year Treasury, 5 Oct 2026)	5.31%	FRED DGS10
Own 2-yr weekly beta vs S&P 500	2.46	IBKR weekly closes, 104 weekly returns to the week of 5 Oct 2026; SPY as the index proxy
Peer median beta (check)	2.08	stockanalysis 5-year betas of the 7 peers in 6d with a beta (SNDK n/a)
Raw beta used	2.27	Average of the two (gap 0.38 > 0.3), per method
Adjusted beta (0.67×raw+0.33)	1.85
Equity risk premium	5.0%	Developed market (assumption)
Size/illiquidity premium	0%	About US$1.2tn market value
Cost of equity	14.6%	Used in DCF, residual income and peer discounting
Debt weight / after-tax cost of debt	0.4% / 5.0%	US$5.18bn debt; risk-free + 1% spread (assumption) × (1 − 21%)
WACC	14.5%

6b. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

US$bn	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E	FY30E	FY31E
Revenue	275	250	200	210	220
Growth	+106.5%	−9.1%	−20.0%	+5.0%	+4.8%
EBITDA	239.2	195.0	120.0	115.5	121.0
EBITDA margin	87%	78%	60%	55%	55%
D&A	12.0	14.5	17.0	19.0	21.0
Capex	55.0	55.0	45.0	40.0	40.0
FCFF	151.3	113.8	60.1	61.5	66.5
Present value	133.9	88.0	40.5	36.2	34.2

Operating company valued on unlevered free cash flow at the 14.5% WACC: FCFF = EBIT × (1 − 14.5% tax) + D&A − capex (tax rate implied by FY2026 net income ÷ operating income; working capital and customer deposits ignored). Revenue is a price × volume view: FY2027 = consensus US$275.0bn (only FQ1 is guided: US$61.5bn); FY2028 −9% and FY2029 −20% as new DRAM/NAND capacity lowers prices, then +5% a year. Capex follows the guided step-up (US$55bn in FY2027–28). Cash flows are discounted from each fiscal year-end (the first 0.9 years away). Terminal: perpetuity growth 3.0% (assumption, below US nominal GDP growth) and an exit EV/EBITDA of 9x on FY2031 EBITDA, averaged. Add net cash US$68.3bn; divide by 1.143bn diluted shares.

Case	Key differences	Perpetuity (g)	Exit multiple	DCF value
Bear	FY27 revenue US$250bn, then −20% and −30%; EBITDA margin 45–50% from FY29	US$383 (g 2.5%)	US$496 (7x)	US$440
Base	Consensus FY27, then −9%, −20%, +5%; EBITDA margin 55% from FY30	US$618 (g 3.0%)	US$841 (9x)	US$730
Bull	FY27 US$300bn, FY28 US$330bn, mild FY29 dip; EBITDA margin 62–88%	US$1,105 (g 3.5%)	US$1,588 (11x)	US$1,346

Implied discount rate: the base-case cash flows equal today’s US$1,088.00 price at 8.4%, versus our 14.5% WACC.

6c. Residual Income

US$ per share	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E	FY30E	FY31E
Opening book	121.1	292.0	427.9	505.8	578.9
EPS (base case)	171.5	136.5	78.5	73.7	76.3
ROE (on opening book)	141.6%	46.8%	18.4%	14.6%	13.2%
Residual income	153.9	94.0	16.2	0.0	−8.0

Starting book value US$138.4bn (equity at 3 Sep 2026; US$121.07 a share on 1.143bn diluted shares), US$0.60 a share paid out, cost of equity 14.6%. As book value builds up from retained peak earnings, ROE falls to about 13% by FY2031 — below the cost of equity — so residual income turns negative. Value with full persistence US$297 a share; with 50% persistence US$331; average US$314. Justified P/B = (ROE − g)/(CoE − g) = 1.07x at a 15.4% FY2029–31 ROE (US$129 a share). Micron is capital-heavy (fabs) and trades below 10x book (8.9x), so book value is the capital at work. Weight in fair value: 30%.

6d. Peers (stockanalysis, prices at 7 Oct 2026)

Ticker	Price	Mkt cap	Fwd P/E	EV/EBITDA	3-yr growth fcst
MU (Micron)	US$1,088.00	US$1.23tn	6.18	10.66	33.5%
SNDK (Sandisk)	US$1,692.42	US$247.8bn	7.89	19.14	40.7%
WDC (Western Digital)	US$405.42	US$151.8bn	20.15	30.26	34.5%
STX (Seagate)	US$807.57	US$183.6bn	22.52	40.78	36.4%
NVDA (NVIDIA)	US$237.47	US$5.73tn	19.78	28.31	61.1%
AVGO (Broadcom)	US$376.51	US$1.80tn	21.69	34.92	62.1%
AMD (AMD)	US$645.86	US$1.05tn	58.16	109.34	52.9%
QCOM (Qualcomm)	US$177.12	US$189.1bn	19.53	16.34	5.4%
TXN (Texas Instruments)	US$288.98	US$263.9bn	30.71	28.16	16.0%
Peer median (ex MU)			20.92	29.29

Peer method: median forward P/E of all eight profitable peers (20.9x) × Micron’s mid-cycle EPS of US$107.31 (the average of our base-case FY2027–31 EPS, used instead of peak FY2027 EPS because peers’ forward earnings are not at a cyclical peak) = US$2,245 a year out, discounted one year at the 14.6% cost of equity = US$1,959. FY2028 (FY+2) consensus EPS is NOT FOUND, so the mid-cycle path replaces it. For reference, the same multiple on FY2027 consensus EPS of US$176.15 gives US$3,217; the closest pure memory peer, Sandisk, trades on only 7.9x. Cross-check: Micron’s EV/EBITDA of 10.7x vs a peer median of 29.3x.

6e. Single-lever Test

Input changed alone	Low	High	Swing
Peer P/E on mid-cycle EPS 15x / 25x	US$808	US$1,089	US$281
FY2029–31 revenue −20% / +20%	US$849	US$1,099	US$250
FY2029–31 EBITDA margin 45% / 65%	US$852	US$1,075	US$223
WACC 12.5% / 16.5% (DCF leg)	US$950	US$1,004	US$54
Exit EV/EBITDA 7x / 11x	US$952	US$996	US$44
Capex +15% / −15%	US$960	US$987	US$27

The biggest lever is the P/E applied to mid-cycle earnings: 15x–25x moves fair value from US$808 to US$1,089; the FY2029–31 revenue path is a close second.

7. Synthesis

Method	Inputs	Value	vs price	Weight	Weighted
DCF (FCFF)	Perpetuity 3.0% and 9x exit, averaged; WACC 14.5%	US$730	−32.9%	40%	US$292
Residual income	Book US$121.07, CoE 14.6%, full/50% persistence	US$314	−71.1%	30%	US$94
Peers	20.9x × mid-cycle EPS US$107.31, discounted 1 year	US$1,959	+80.1%	30%	US$588
Fair value		US$974	−10.5%	100%	US$974
Bear / Base / Bull	Same weights on each case	US$635 / US$974 / US$1,620	−41.6% / −10.5% / +48.9%

How much rests on consensus: valuing the peer leg on the bear-case EPS path (FY2027 revenue US$250bn, then a sharper 2028–29 downturn) cuts it to US$1,325 and fair value to US$784 (−28.0%). Fair value on FY2027 consensus EPS at face value would be far higher, which is why we do not use peak earnings.

Margin of safety: fair value is 10.5% below the price (the price is 11.7% above fair value), so there is no margin of safety; a 30% discount to fair value would be US$682. The implied discount rate of 8.4% is well below our 14.5% WACC.

8. Technicals

• Trend: up. The close of US$1,088.00 is above the 50-day (US$967.16), 100-day (US$962.69) and 200-day (US$694.07) averages and far above the 50-week (US$627.57) and 200-week (US$227.00) averages. The 50-day has been above the 200-day for every session we can measure (last 52); the date of the last cross is outside our one-year data.
• Momentum: neutral-to-positive. Daily RSI-14 59.7, weekly RSI-14 65.3; the daily MACD histogram is −0.6 vs +5.4 a week ago, so upside momentum has faded.
• Volatility: 20-day average true range US$43.59 (4.0% of price); the shares swung between US$737.88 and US$1,108.72 in the last three months.
• Volume: 21.9m shares traded on 7 Oct (IBKR daily bar) vs a 90-session average of about 25.1m shares (about US$24.5bn a day); the heaviest one-year volume-by-price nodes are US$897–941 and US$941–986 and, from the early-2026 base, US$359–448.

Level	Price	Basis
Resistance 2	US$1,255.00	52-week and all-time high (week of 22 Jun 2026)
Resistance 1	US$1,108.72	One-month and three-month high
Current	US$1,088.00	7 Oct 2026 close
Support 1	US$897–986	High-volume nodes (897–941 and 941–986); 50-day average US$967.16
Support 2	US$902.60	One-month low
Support 3	US$737.88	Three-month low (Jul–Aug 2026 sell-off)

Our Dated Calls

Pre-registered calls, scored publicly on the dates shown; price calls use total return after typical trading costs (about 0.1%).

#	Call	Probability	Scoring date
1	FQ1 FY2027 revenue ≥ US$61.5bn (guidance midpoint)	65%	15 Jan 2027
2	FQ1 FY2027 non-GAAP gross margin ≥ 86.0%	60%	15 Jan 2027
3	Micron announces a new or enlarged share-buyback authorisation	65%	15 Jan 2027
4	FY2027 consensus revenue (stockanalysis) ≥ US$275bn	55%	15 Jan 2027
5	MU total return from US$1,088.00 is negative after costs	50%	7 Apr 2027
6	MU closes below US$900 at least once	50%	7 Apr 2027

Bull Case

• Contracts change the cycle: 26 take-or-pay agreements covering more than 35% of revenue through 2030 and about US$150bn of remaining performance obligations could keep prices firm.
• Management sees no let-up: it expects supply to stay tight through FY2027–28 and called FQ1 the floor for FY2027 gross margins.
• Cheap if earnings hold: at 6.2x forward EPS with US$68.3bn net cash, margins above 60% through FY2031 give a fair value of US$1,620 (+48.9%).

Bear Case

• Peak earnings, peak margins: an 87% gross margin in a commodity industry has never lasted; past downturns cut the shares by 50–70%.
• Everyone is building: industry wafer-fab equipment spending of about US$145bn in 2026 and US$156bn in 2027 points to oversupply in 2027–28, just as Micron lifts capex above US$50bn.
• Insiders are sellers: the CEO sold 40,000 shares a month through mid-2026; on the bear path fair value is US$635 (−41.6%).

FAQ

What is Micron’s fair value?

Our 12-month fair value is US$974 per share (range US$635–US$1,620), from 40% DCF (US$730), 30% residual income (US$314) and 30% peers (US$1,959).

Is Micron undervalued?

No — at US$1,088.00 (7 Oct 2026 close) it is fairly valued on our numbers, −10.5% vs fair value. It looks cheap on 6.2x forward earnings, but those earnings are near a cyclical peak.

What are the main risks for Micron?

The memory cycle (industry capacity additions in 2027–28), a weaker HBM position than its two rivals, customer concentration (top ten ≈ half of revenue) and China restrictions.

When are Micron’s next results?

FQ1 FY2027 (quarter to early December 2026) has no announced date yet; last year’s FQ1 report came on 17 Dec 2025. Guidance is US$61.5bn ± US$1.5bn of revenue.

Does Micron pay a dividend?

Yes — US$0.15 a quarter (US$0.60 a year, 0.06% yield). The next one has a record date of 14 Oct 2026 and is paid on 29 Oct 2026.

Method and Sources

Fair value blends a five-year unlevered DCF (40%; perpetuity growth and exit EV/EBITDA averaged), a residual-income model (30%) and a peer forward P/E on mid-cycle EPS (30%), all at one discount rate: cost of equity 14.6% from the US 10-year yield (5.31%), an adjusted beta of 1.85 (own two-year weekly beta 2.46 averaged with the peer median 2.08) and a 5% equity risk premium; WACC 14.5%. Prices and technicals are from IBKR daily and weekly bars to 7 Oct 2026; the IBKR snapshot showed higher 7 Oct volume than the daily bar, and we use the saved daily bars throughout. Consensus differs by source (Yahoo: FY2027 revenue US$245.6bn; stockanalysis: US$275.0bn); we use stockanalysis. Figures independently fact-checked against the linked sources on 8 Oct 2026.

• Company and SEC: FQ4 FY2026 8-K release · FQ2 FY2026 release · FQ1 FY2026 release · FY2021 release · FY2025 10-K · Form 4 filings (secform4) · Leadership release
• Calls and news: FQ4 call transcript · MarketBeat call summary · Mitrade · Stocktwits · The Standard (Reuters) · StockTitan · StockTitan · stockti · FourWeekMBA · ValueTheMarkets · AI Weekly · Tom’s Hardware · The Next Web · Trefis · Seeking Alpha
• Data and consensus: stockanalysis financials · quarterly · cash flow · balance sheet · statistics · forecast · Yahoo analysis · MarketBeat forecast · Simply Wall St ownership · MarketScreener calendar
• Rates and index: FRED DGS10 · S&P DJI 1 Oct 2026 index changes · S&P 500 constituents

Not located (NOT FOUND): the FY2026 10-K (not yet filed) and with it the FY2026 geographic split and single-customer shares; FY2028 consensus; HBM revenue; FY2026 DRAM/NAND split; CEO pay from the primary proxy; credit ratings; 10b5-1 status of executive sales and Form 4s for Oct–Dec 2025; the FQ1 FY2027 results date; a count of in-depth analyses in the last 90 days.

Analysis only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures as at 7 Oct 2026; sources linked. The author does not hold a position in MU.