19 Jan 2025 – 25 Jan 2026

Intel’s Collapse Shakes Tech

Intel plunged 17% on Friday, its worst day since 2024. The company beat Q4 earnings but issued lower-than-expected Q1 guidance, with projected revenue of $11.7 – 12.7 billion and zero adjusted EPS.

The CEO openly admitted that the company was unable to meet demand for AI chips due to supply constraints, which could limit revenue opportunities in 2026. Intel also reported that it was running at full capacity, yet still unable to fulfill all customer orders.

Intel had surged 47% in January on AI expectations, but Friday’s plunge erased those gains, closing at $45.07.

It would appear that Investors have since rotated into Intel’s competitors, with AMD gaining 2.3% and Nvidia rising 1.6%. That said, S&P still closed down 0.4% at 6,916 for the week, and the Dow has dropped 0.6%.

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Equities: Second Consecutive Weekly Loss

The 7,000 Ceiling The S&P 500 posted its second straight weekly decline, confirming 7,000 as a formidable resistance level after three failed breakout attempts this month. While Mega-cap Tech provided a temporary buffer against Intel’s 17% collapse, underlying market breadth is deteriorating rapidly. Banks remain the primary anchor, sliding further as the industry braces for a protracted legal battle over the proposed 10% cap on credit card rates.

All eyes turn to Wednesday’s Fed meeting. While a “hold” is priced in, the real volatility lies in Chair Powell’s rhetoric. His defense of Fed independence against rising executive pressure will likely determine whether the 6,850 support level holds or breaks.

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Bitcoin: $93k Support Broken, Fell to $87,900

Bitcoin fell 7.8% to $87,900 after breaking key $93k support, reinforcing market instability noted above.

Over $1 billion in leveraged crypto positions got liquidated. $224 million in liquidations hit within 24 hours alone. Bitcoin-tracked futures totaled $68 million, and Etherium futures totaled $45 million. The fallout was brutal.

With macro headwinds, such as threats of Japanese yen intervention and rising odds of a US government shutdown (Polymarket at 76%), plus Fed meeting uncertainty, Bitcoin faces the risk of further losses. If $85k support fails, sharper declines are likely. If it holds, prices may stabilize or recover, but ongoing volatility is expected.

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Gold and Silver: Flight to Safety

As markets trended lower, gold reached an all-time high near $4,750/oz, up 6% this month. Silver peaked at $99, ending around $95, up nearly 3% for the week.

Silver has been having a historic year, with a 150% gain over the past 12 months and almost daily highs. This was mainly fueled by a massive short squeeze, strong retail buying, tightening export controls from China, and increasing industrial demand for solar and electronics.

Despite strong gains, the gold/silver ratio remains compressed, signaling market caution and possible recession prep.

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Volatility: Finally Waking Up

VIX closed at 16.1, up from 15.9 the week before.

Option premiums have started expanding, not enough to make covered calls attractive, but it is indicative of a market that is pricing in more risk.

VIX stayed below 16. A disappointing Fed meeting or weak tech earnings could send it above 20.

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The Week Ahead

Fed Meeting (Jan 28-29)

Rates would likely stay unchanged. However, Powell’s commentary on Trump’s policies could cause markets to wobble. Should he cave to political pressure, the bell tolls for Fed independence.

Big Tech Earnings

With Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Apple all reporting this week, any miss or guidance lowering would accelerate the selloff.

Government Shutdown Risk

Markets historically sell before shutdowns but rally after. However, this time, it feels different with so many other factors in play.

Bitcoin at Critical Level

With current low trading volumes, Bitcoin’s direction hinges on critical risk points. If $85k support breaks, a swift drop to $80k is likely, marking further downside risk. Conversely, reclaiming $90k could restore retail confidence and mitigate downside pressure.